The Lazy Trader.
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CHRISTMAS PROMOTION.
LTOptions at a 33% discount during the Year End Holidays.
Friday, December 14, 2012.
LT Trend Sniper - A forex strategy that works.
As the name suggests, the strategy attempts to catch trends. Very long term trends in fact on the daily time-frame. Once a trend is identified the system will attempt to ride it for as long as possible, sometimes for even 2 or 3 months, in order to maximize gains. No target profit is ever defined. Instead, the system will try to exploit the trend to its limit, until the trend is as close to its end as possible.
The strategy was designed with the following principles in mind:
2- A mathematical expectancy analysis to calculate, demonstrate and quantify a positive edge.
3- A wide parameter space of profitable combinations of different parameters.
4- Optimization made through Parameter Ranking selection.
5- Dynamic position sizing to keep a consistent risk per trade.
6- Dynamic calculation of Stop Loss distance according to current volatility of the currency pair, in order to adjust to the ever changing nature of the markets.
7- Winning trades are typically much larger than losing trades, and Trailing Stop Loss mechanisms exist to protect profits and reduce draw-downs.
Different Configurations and Returns.
Aggressive Position Sizing - Conservative Stop Loss.
Back-test + Out of sample testing period: 2000 - 2012.
The Sniper can also be played as a portfolio of multiple instruments. Consider the following portfolio.
January 1, 2000 – December 31, 2012 (13 years)
Stop Loss Distance: Conservative.
Risk Level: Moderate (EURUSD, GOLD), Conservative (GBPUSD, AUDUSD)
Average Annual Return: +20.33%
Maximum Draw-down: 15.64%
Expert Advisor for Metatrader.
Strategy Description and Configuration Guide.
I feel that in order to truly exploit the Sniper, traders need to have not only an EA but also a complete guide at their disposal detailing everything about the strategy: Entry logic, Exit rules, Stop Losses, Position sizes, Portfolio approach, different configurations and more. I was always an enemy of black-box Expert Advisors where you never know what is really going on and very quickly you just stop trusting the robot. Trading a long term profitable system takes a high degree of confidence which only comes from a deep understanding of all the details of what you are trading. That's why the entire strategy is disclosed to the last detail, so that you achieve the necessary level of understanding required to stick with the system for the long run.
Thanks for reading folks!
11 comments:
I indeed have tested several currency pairs including for example all the Japanese Yen pairs and those seem to not create smooth trends. Of course they trend in the long term but they are more "noisy trends" not easily exploitable, at least not with the principles of the Sniper strategy.
Thanks for your response! It will surely be interesting to study those other tests =D.
What do you think about merging both the "LT Trend Sniper" and "Turtle Trading 2" systems into 1 single Expert Advisor. In fact (and if I'm not wrong), you would just need to add the two following options to the LT Trend Sniper EA:
But then it wouldn't be a Sniper it would just be the Turtle Trading system.
One of the ideas behind the sniper that make it so different is to not add to the positions as later positions have a higher probability of bringing losses as the trend is more likely close to reverse the more it develops. This is the reason why the AAR/MDD ratio is better on the Sniper.
Very well, I understand. And what about implementing your Trend Sniper exit strategy as an alternative option to the Turtle Trading EA. It would make it even superior; but of course you could say the same again ("it would just be the Turtle Trading system with a little extra, or the Sniper, for the same purpose"), hehe. But I truly believe that merging both systems could be great in order to do further testing with more variables into the equation. Haven't you considered it at all?
I did implement the Snipers "lack of progress" exit rule to the Turtles on a separate experiment. The AAR/MDD didn't improve significantly so I just stopped investigating it.
Another question to this system: "Japanese Yen pairs seem to not create smooth trends". What about USDCAD, NZDUSD (although somewhat correlated to AU) and XAUUSD (Gold). All of them have been producing nice trends since last year till now.
Nop. Not very successful with those either. Again it doesn't mean that those symbols don't trend, it means that they don't tend to do it as smoothly as the Euro does. I did find positive returns in 10 year backtests but the returns were too erratic and there were plenty of negative years. So, I personally just prefer to not use them.
Ok, very well. What concerns me, is the possibility of current working pairs to start changing to a more erratic behavior, as the inevitable losses would occur and it would be to late to notice, and once noticed, it will take a lot of time to recover after fine-tuning the system to new conditions.
But that's a very complex issue. You don't know if the "new market conditions" will be permanent to justify a "fine-tuning". You may fine tune just to get bad results and see the old configuration work again. We never know. That's why, in spite of the fact that other parameters give greater returns, I prefer to focus on the most stable ones, meaning lower standard deviations of returns and draw-downs year after year, and strong and wide neighborhood of profitable parameters. Over 15 years of data, we have a big sample size that includes A LOT of different market conditions, termoils, calamities, wars, debt crisis, earthquakes, universal financial crisis threatening the backbone of the capitalist system itself. I guess what I'm trying to say is that every strategy will have losing periods, and eventually , given enough time they will fail. Be it in a hundred years or a thousand or infinite, no matter which parameters you use. I'm not totally against fine tuning periodically, I have just noticed that in my experience it tends to be a futile exercise. I prefer to rest on the simplicity of a system which due to its simplicity and small number of parameters it is almost impossible to curve-fit, coupled to a strong profitability in the parameters space, with dozens of profitable combinations of parameters.
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Forex tools.
The information provided on this site is for education purposes only. The author is not a registered financial adviser and the ideas discussed on the site are just trading analysis and not recommendations. Lazy Trading LLC doesn't endorse any of the comments that might appear on the discussion threads. There is no guarantee for those comments to be accurate. By reading this site you automatically agree that The Lazy Trader (Lazy Trading LLC) is not responsible for any of your trading decisions. Remember not to risk money that you cannot afford to lose.

Donchian LT Trading System.
Strategy type: Long Term Trend Following.
Donchian LT is a simple long term trend following strategy developed to trade all global futures and commodities markets. Donchian LT is a “breakout” type strategy and attempts to get into new trends when they are breaking through support/resistance levels.
Donchian LT uses dynamic risk management for determining optimal position sizing and money management and can be customized to any account size.
Key Details.
Developer : Wisdom Trading strategy type : Long-term trend following Markets Traded : All Global Futures and Commodities Lease and Commissions: No lease / $20 per trade Minimum Account Size: $30,000.
Sample trades.
Wisdom Trading is an NFA-registered Introducing Broker.
We offer Global commodity brokerage services, managed futures consultation, direct access trading, and trading system execution services to individuals, corporations and industry professionals.
As an Independent introducing broker we maintain clearing relationships with several major Futures Commission Merchants around the globe. Multiple clearing relationships allow us to offer our clients a wide range of services and exceptionally wide range of markets.
Our clearing relationships provide clients with 24hr access to futures, commodities, and foreign exchange markets around the globe.
Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LT Options by The Lazy Trader.
Consistent and Sustainable Income through solid Risk Management.
Special Christmas Gift.
LTOptions Course at a 33% discount during the Year End Holidays.
From $120 down to $80. Lifetime membership. No recurring fees.
What you get:
35 Video episodes: more than 8 hours of video covering 3 months of trading on a real money account. A pdf guide of 74 pages that covers all the details of the trading methodology.
Five additional ebooks covering topics from exquisite risk management techniques to trading the Lazy Elephant position. Access to the Q&A section for additional knowledge that is frequently being updated. Personal access and support from yours truly. Immediate access to Weekend Portfolio Analysis with my game plan every week (available to the rest of the audience one week later).
LT Options will show you:
Ideal circumstances for selling credit spreads. When to sell a spread vs when to sell an Iron Condor. How to read a short-term market extreme. Trades management Entries: first and secondary trades of an expiration cycle. When to enter new positions? Strike prices selection. Expected credits to receive. Capital allocation. Diversification of positions over time and across the prices spectrum to reduce risk. Beta weighting positions to understand their differences and manage portfolio risk more effectively. How to estimate, well in advance, at which point an existing position will be threatened and in need for adjustment. Adjustmets: How to protect positions gone bad. Estimation of losses in advance. Historical worst case scenarios. Exits: When to close early, when to not make adjustments, when to take all the way to expiration. Vital differences between Call Spreads and Put spreads. How to manage each case, from entries to adjustments to exits. Trading costs and how to mitigate them. Impact of volatility in options trading. Seasonality in trading. What is it? Where to find the numbers? How can it be used to your advantage? How to review your portfolio in less than 10 minutes and design an effective, no-hesitation action plan for the days ahead. Technical analysis for the Options Seller. Where is this market not likely to go? Trend lines, Divergences, distances between an instrument's price and its own moving averages, support and resistance areas. The mental part of the game: patience, avoiding herd mentality, understanding the financial media and markets' noise. Anti-crash protection. How to effectively deal with market crashes and successfully avoid large draw-downs. Opportunistic long options plays with limited risk and unlimited upside potential. How to lock-in gains while staying in the position. BONUS STRATEGY: You also get details about a new strategy I created: The Lazy Elephant, which solves some of the problems of traditional Iron Condors.
Read a Sample chapter from the book.
An analysis of the worst drawdowns the strategy could suffer when facing some of the most devastating sell offs and some of the strongest bull market rallies seen in history.
For transparency I offer my own Results using the LTOptions approach. The Results section is updated monthly. Note: Not everybody obtains the same results. It depends on which particular symbol you choose for each cycle; the credit you obtain; your broker's commissions ; how well you are managing anti-crash protection. That being said, if all the same principles are applied, you should end up with a smooth equity curve with very well controlled draw-downs.
Thanks from The Lazy Trader.
At the-lazy-trader I have been, for years, openly discussing my Investment ideas; Forex systems and all of my Options trades with 100% transparency, publicly tracking my performance and measuring the effectiveness of my strategies as time goes by. Out of all that, Options trading has become my number one passion.
This site contains all the details of my approach to Options trading and it is the direct result of my own experience with real skin in the game. Overtime I have developed a robust framework of rules for trading options, perfected by the tons of lessons I have learned. I strongly believe in its effectiveness at minmizing draw downs while providing a sustainable, smooth and upward moving equity curve.
This trading style is based on selling Credit Spreads and Iron Condors in indexes such as SPX and RUT. It can also be applied to their corresponding ETFs: SPY and IWM. It is simple to understand and easy to execute. With some practice you will spend less than an hour per week analyzing your positions and planning the next defensive and offensive moves. You will see that selling options, especially options in indexes, is not rocket science and can turn into a consistently profitable activity.
When it comes to selling options, it is easy to put high probability trades and be successful for a while, until "that day" happens. Selling options is serious business: you win most of the time, but your eventual losses can get ugly if they are not properly controlled. Ultimately, what defines your long term success as an options seller is your ability to keep a consistent approach at order entry with a concise edge ; your ability to build positions that spread risk over time and across the price spectrum of the market so that no more than one of them can be threatened at the same time; your planning ahead of all possible market moves and your unequivocal action plan for each one of them. Finally, a solid risk management technique when things go wrong and your positions need adjustments. Offering concrete, detailed solutions to all these challenges is at the core of this system .
If you have had a hard time staying consistently profitable; if you have been burned following trades from a newsletter; or even if you follow a service that has made you some money, this material will help you. I believe trading newsletters are a stage in your evolution. A stage that all successful traders eventually grow out of. They say don't give the man a fish, show him how to fish instead. That's the goal. That's what I would have needed back when I was just being scammed and ripped off out there. Generating your own ideas and trading them with confidence is the only road to being truly free and successful as a trader in the long run. You don't need a 'guru'. You only need to learn to be your own 'guru'.
So, here it is, detailed to the last minutiae and yours forever. Every thing I do, how I do it, when I do it and the reasons behind each action. The best part: it's all concentrated in just one place, in both video and text format and you get my dedicated support.
I know this material has is all to improve your trading.
If you have any questions don't be a stranger. Drop me a line at henrikthe-lazy-trader or postmasterltoptions and I'll be glad to answer.
Here's to your success!
What LTOptions is and what it is not.
LTOptions contains the details of my trading style in Videos and pdf eBooks. It describes the mechanics and principles of my strategy to the last detail, so that people can learn a few cool things and adopt them if they want, or customize to their needs.
Due to my own experience, I'm in general against trading alert services. For this reason, I believe the best way is to offer people the path to learn to trade with confidence themselves and become their "own gurus".
LTOptions is not a trading newsletter where you receive instant trade alerts via sms or s. I do, however, disclose my own positions and write up Weekend Portfolio Analysis articles as an additional way to help members and to keep myself accountable.
An independent review by Aram Basmadjian from tradewitharam. Aram is a legit seasoned trader so this review means a lot to me. This was not a paid review. Aram is a real customer who bought the course and he is not affiliated with The Lazy Trader. In other words, he did not receive a single penny for his review. LTOptions Review – Learn To Trade Iron Condors & Vertical Spreads.
An independent review by Dan Neagoy from thetatrend. Dan is also an experienced trader with more than 15 years of scars in the markets, which makes his opinion really stand out. Dan is not affiliated with LTOptions. He did not receive any sort of monetary compensation for his review as he clearly points out. "Nice work Henrik. This is the only website I recommend for people to learn how to trade credit spreads. You are very transparent, honest and professional in all my years of interacting with you."
- Jonathan. San Francisco, California, USA. Long term follower since 2012. "I bought your LT Options and I enjoyed it and learned a lot. It is very well explained in a simple manner (without complicating it) and I especially loved your chapters on Adjusting. Thanks for taking the time to write/create this course and help others."
- Natarajan. New Jersey, USA. "Impressive. I had never seen such a solid system for Credit Spread trading. I particularly enjoyed the trading technique for dealing with market crashes. Simply Fantastic!"
- Harold. Pittsburgh, USA. "Great book and great videos. Definitely a bargain for this value. Thanks for putting together some serious piece of work."
- Alex. Toronto, Ontario, Canada. "I am enjoying trading SPX condors very much, using a combination of your methods and others. Thanks for the strategy, and your course was probably the best trading investment I've ever made!"
- Steve. Seattle, USA. "Very impressive, indeed! I've been checking out your website and can't say enough wonderful things about it, its creator, and its contributor. Thank you for being such an honest and straight up guy in and industry filled with frauds, liars, and sanctimonius self presenting prophetic false award winning guru hucksters. What a breath of fresh air!"
DISCLAIMER.
Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the options markets. This options trading course is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell options and there is no guarantee that you will obtain the same returns, as the past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. All the contents presented here are therefore for educational purposes only. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose. The author of this material is not a registered financial advisor. Please get the advice of a professional financial advisor before investing your money in any financial instrument.
LT Options is Copyright© by The Lazy Trader and property of Lazy Trading LLC. All Rights Reserved.

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